Volume & money flow · daily rule · Industrials & materials
Money Flow Index on Cargojet
CJT with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2012
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding CJT over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2012 | Hold, since 2012 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +6.7% | +19.8% | +5.2% | −14.3% |
| Total return | +155% | +1,288% | +29% | −54% |
| Worst drawdown | −53.3% | −71.1% | −49.0% | −65.0% |
| Volatility | 22.4% | 34.8% | 26.2% | 37.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.32 | 0.64 | 0.18 | −0.32 |
| Time invested | 37% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.3 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 19 of 33 closed calls (58%). In calls averaged +5.6%; out calls saw CJT move +17.0% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | CJT moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | IN | C$79.00 | now | +8.9% | open |
| Jan 13, 2026 | OUT | C$87.35 | Sep 10, 2026 | −9.6% | ✓ right |
| Nov 10, 2025 | IN | C$67.45 | Jan 13, 2026 | +29.5% | ✓ right |
| May 28, 2025 | OUT | C$90.58 | Nov 10, 2025 | −25.5% | ✓ right |
| Mar 12, 2025 | IN | C$86.33 | May 28, 2025 | +4.9% | ✓ right |
| Jan 21, 2025 | OUT | C$117.83 | Mar 12, 2025 | −26.7% | ✓ right |
| Jul 22, 2024 | IN | C$128.53 | Jan 21, 2025 | −8.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 21, 2024 | OUT | C$127.25 | Jul 22, 2024 | +1.0% | ✕ wrong |
| May 31, 2024 | IN | C$106.88 | Jun 21, 2024 | +19.1% | ✓ right |
| Dec 12, 2023 | OUT | C$107.47 | May 31, 2024 | −0.5% | ✓ right |
| Sep 2, 2022 | IN | C$127.87 | Dec 12, 2023 | −16.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 27, 2022 | OUT | C$162.94 | Sep 2, 2022 | −21.5% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 34 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.