Volume & money flow · daily rule · Metals & mining
Money Flow Index on B2Gold
BTO with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2008
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding BTO over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2008 | Hold, since 2008 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +3.2% | +8.2% | +26.9% | +11.9% |
| Total return | +80% | +332% | +227% | +75% |
| Worst drawdown | −84.2% | −85.0% | −30.1% | −44.6% |
| Volatility | 34.7% | 56.1% | 29.4% | 43.8% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.22 | 0.39 | 0.83 | 0.39 |
| Time invested | 37% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.3 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 29 of 42 closed calls (69%). In calls averaged +6.5%; out calls saw BTO move +15.4% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | BTO moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | OUT | C$7.40 | now | −4.2% | open |
| Mar 24, 2026 | IN | C$5.61 | Aug 20, 2026 | +31.9% | ✓ right |
| Jun 6, 2025 | OUT | C$4.88 | Mar 24, 2026 | +15.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 8, 2025 | IN | C$3.68 | Jun 6, 2025 | +32.5% | ✓ right |
| Feb 24, 2025 | OUT | C$3.91 | Apr 8, 2025 | −6.0% | ✓ right |
| Nov 15, 2024 | IN | C$3.59 | Feb 24, 2025 | +8.9% | ✓ right |
| Apr 4, 2024 | OUT | C$3.41 | Nov 15, 2024 | +5.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 26, 2024 | IN | C$3.37 | Apr 4, 2024 | +1.3% | ✓ right |
| Oct 26, 2023 | OUT | C$3.90 | Jan 26, 2024 | −13.5% | ✓ right |
| Aug 17, 2023 | IN | C$3.63 | Oct 26, 2023 | +7.2% | ✓ right |
| Apr 14, 2023 | OUT | C$5.03 | Aug 17, 2023 | −27.7% | ✓ right |
| Feb 16, 2023 | IN | C$3.91 | Apr 14, 2023 | +28.6% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 43 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.