Volume & money flow · daily rule · Crypto miners
Money Flow Index on Bitdeer Technologies
BTDR with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of $10,000 since 2021
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding BTDR over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2021 | Hold, since 2021 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +99.9% | −1.1% | +104.2% | −1.5% |
| Total return | +3,388% | −6% | +3,387% | −7% |
| Worst drawdown | −41.5% | −79.5% | −41.5% | −79.5% |
| Volatility | 60.6% | 101.1% | 61.5% | 102.6% |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.36 | 0.45 | 1.38 | 0.45 |
| Time invested | 33% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 5.5 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 19 of 28 closed calls (68%). In calls averaged +36.4%; out calls saw BTDR move −13.0% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | BTDR moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | OUT | $19.63 | now | −53.1% | open |
| Feb 25, 2026 | IN | $8.55 | Jun 4, 2026 | +129.6% | ✓ right |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OUT | $14.19 | Feb 25, 2026 | −39.7% | ✓ right |
| Nov 28, 2025 | IN | $13.41 | Jan 21, 2026 | +5.8% | ✓ right |
| May 13, 2025 | OUT | $14.43 | Nov 28, 2025 | −7.1% | ✓ right |
| Feb 26, 2025 | IN | $10.25 | May 13, 2025 | +40.8% | ✓ right |
| Sep 30, 2024 | OUT | $7.83 | Feb 26, 2025 | +30.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 19, 2024 | IN | $6.89 | Sep 30, 2024 | +13.6% | ✓ right |
| Dec 29, 2023 | OUT | $9.86 | Aug 19, 2024 | −30.1% | ✓ right |
| Oct 25, 2023 | IN | $3.72 | Dec 29, 2023 | +165.1% | ✓ right |
| Aug 18, 2023 | OUT | $13.29 | Oct 25, 2023 | −72.0% | ✓ right |
| Aug 8, 2023 | IN | $9.28 | Aug 18, 2023 | +43.2% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 29 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.