Volume & money flow · daily rule · Energy & power
Money Flow Index on Brookfield Infrastructure Partners
BIP.UN with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2009
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding BIP.UN over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2009 | Hold, since 2009 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +12.6% | +17.0% | +12.2% | +5.5% |
| Total return | +649% | +1,326% | +78% | +31% |
| Worst drawdown | −18.8% | −47.3% | −18.8% | −45.2% |
| Volatility | 11.7% | 23.8% | 15.9% | 25.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.95 | 0.72 | 0.57 | 0.19 |
| Time invested | 28% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.6 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 28 of 44 closed calls (64%). In calls averaged +9.2%; out calls saw BIP.UN move +3.8% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | BIP.UN moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2025 | OUT | C$41.86 | now | +23.8% | open |
| Jul 23, 2025 | IN | C$42.26 | Sep 2, 2025 | −1.0% | ✕ wrong |
| May 22, 2025 | OUT | C$42.59 | Jul 23, 2025 | −0.8% | ✓ right |
| Mar 19, 2025 | IN | C$40.01 | May 22, 2025 | +6.4% | ✓ right |
| May 21, 2024 | OUT | C$37.72 | Mar 19, 2025 | +6.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 31, 2023 | IN | C$28.07 | May 21, 2024 | +34.4% | ✓ right |
| Jan 19, 2023 | OUT | C$40.25 | Oct 31, 2023 | −30.3% | ✓ right |
| Oct 13, 2022 | IN | C$39.94 | Jan 19, 2023 | +0.8% | ✓ right |
| Aug 31, 2022 | OUT | C$47.77 | Oct 13, 2022 | −16.4% | ✓ right |
| May 11, 2022 | IN | C$43.57 | Aug 31, 2022 | +9.6% | ✓ right |
| Aug 26, 2021 | OUT | C$39.66 | May 11, 2022 | +9.8% | ✕ wrong |
| May 13, 2021 | IN | C$35.53 | Aug 26, 2021 | +11.6% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 45 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.