Volume & money flow · daily rule · Energy & power
Money Flow Index on Athabasca Oil
ATH with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2010
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding ATH over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2010 | Hold, since 2010 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −5.8% | −0.3% | +10.5% | +65.7% |
| Total return | −63% | −4% | +65% | +1,134% |
| Worst drawdown | −90.6% | −99.4% | −25.5% | −43.4% |
| Volatility | 40.8% | 57.5% | 19.5% | 48.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.02 | 0.25 | 0.42 | 1.20 |
| Time invested | 41% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 3.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 30 of 52 closed calls (58%). In calls averaged −1.1%; out calls saw ATH move +12.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | ATH moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2025 | OUT | C$6.50 | now | +88.0% | open |
| Jul 18, 2025 | IN | C$5.58 | Sep 19, 2025 | +16.5% | ✓ right |
| May 22, 2025 | OUT | C$5.21 | Jul 18, 2025 | +7.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 11, 2024 | IN | C$4.97 | May 22, 2025 | +4.8% | ✓ right |
| Jul 17, 2023 | OUT | C$3.29 | Sep 11, 2024 | +51.1% | ✕ wrong |
| May 15, 2023 | IN | C$2.83 | Jul 17, 2023 | +16.3% | ✓ right |
| Jan 25, 2023 | OUT | C$2.38 | May 15, 2023 | +18.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 23, 2022 | IN | C$2.35 | Jan 25, 2023 | +1.3% | ✓ right |
| Sep 28, 2021 | OUT | C$0.870 | Dec 23, 2022 | +170.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 20, 2021 | IN | C$0.780 | Sep 28, 2021 | +11.5% | ✓ right |
| May 19, 2021 | OUT | C$0.710 | Jul 20, 2021 | +9.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 23, 2021 | IN | C$0.480 | May 19, 2021 | +47.9% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 53 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.