Volume & money flow · daily rule · Metals & mining
Money Flow Index on Aris Mining
ARIS with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2010
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding ARIS over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2010 | Hold, since 2010 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −4.7% | −20.0% | +24.2% | +37.2% |
| Total return | −53% | −97% | +194% | +383% |
| Worst drawdown | −97.9% | −99.9% | −54.4% | −54.4% |
| Volatility | 54.3% | 71.9% | 38.2% | 51.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.66 | 0.80 |
| Time invested | 55% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 3.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 30 of 50 closed calls (60%). In calls averaged +3.1%; out calls saw ARIS move +0.8% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | ARIS moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | OUT | C$27.71 | now | −13.0% | open |
| Jun 2, 2026 | IN | C$24.30 | Aug 31, 2026 | +14.0% | ✓ right |
| Mar 19, 2025 | OUT | C$6.47 | Jun 2, 2026 | +275.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 27, 2024 | IN | C$5.21 | Mar 19, 2025 | +24.2% | ✓ right |
| Apr 9, 2024 | OUT | C$4.93 | Jun 27, 2024 | +5.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 23, 2024 | IN | C$3.92 | Apr 9, 2024 | +25.8% | ✓ right |
| Nov 29, 2023 | OUT | C$4.26 | Jan 23, 2024 | −8.0% | ✓ right |
| Aug 23, 2023 | IN | C$2.97 | Nov 29, 2023 | +43.4% | ✓ right |
| Apr 6, 2023 | OUT | C$4.31 | Aug 23, 2023 | −31.1% | ✓ right |
| Mar 10, 2023 | IN | C$3.75 | Apr 6, 2023 | +14.9% | ✓ right |
| Jan 26, 2023 | OUT | C$4.58 | Mar 10, 2023 | −18.1% | ✓ right |
| Jul 27, 2021 | IN | C$4.41 | Jan 26, 2023 | +4.0% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 51 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.