Volume & money flow · daily rule · Energy & power
Money Flow Index on Algonquin Power & Utilities
AQN with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding AQN over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +2.9% | +4.5% | +10.3% | −12.2% |
| Total return | +88% | +157% | +63% | −48% |
| Worst drawdown | −73.4% | −78.6% | −41.5% | −63.7% |
| Volatility | 20.5% | 28.9% | 19.0% | 29.0% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.17 | 0.24 | 0.42 | −0.43 |
| Time invested | 33% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.0 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 26 of 44 closed calls (59%). In calls averaged +3.3%; out calls saw AQN move +6.3% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | AQN moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2025 | OUT | C$7.90 | now | −7.7% | open |
| Sep 19, 2025 | IN | C$7.11 | Oct 22, 2025 | +11.0% | ✓ right |
| Feb 27, 2025 | OUT | C$6.34 | Sep 19, 2025 | +12.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 6, 2024 | IN | C$6.01 | Feb 27, 2025 | +5.6% | ✓ right |
| May 8, 2024 | OUT | C$8.01 | Nov 6, 2024 | −25.0% | ✓ right |
| Mar 1, 2024 | IN | C$6.90 | May 8, 2024 | +16.1% | ✓ right |
| Dec 6, 2023 | OUT | C$7.11 | Mar 1, 2024 | −2.9% | ✓ right |
| Nov 1, 2023 | IN | C$6.23 | Dec 6, 2023 | +14.1% | ✓ right |
| May 11, 2023 | OUT | C$9.59 | Nov 1, 2023 | −35.0% | ✓ right |
| Oct 14, 2022 | IN | C$11.29 | May 11, 2023 | −15.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 17, 2022 | OUT | C$14.56 | Oct 14, 2022 | −22.4% | ✓ right |
| May 13, 2022 | IN | C$14.02 | Aug 17, 2022 | +3.8% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 45 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.