Volume & money flow · daily rule · Real estate
Money Flow Index on Altus Group
AIF with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2008
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding AIF over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2008 | Hold, since 2008 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +0.4% | +11.3% | −6.8% | −4.0% |
| Total return | +8% | +596% | −30% | −18% |
| Worst drawdown | −74.6% | −80.2% | −47.3% | −46.1% |
| Volatility | 28.2% | 36.3% | 30.3% | 33.2% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.11 | 0.44 | −0.20 | −0.07 |
| Time invested | 49% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.7 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 26 of 49 closed calls (53%). In calls averaged +1.7%; out calls saw AIF move +12.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | AIF moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2025 | IN | C$58.69 | now | −17.2% | open |
| Aug 7, 2025 | OUT | C$51.46 | Sep 30, 2025 | +14.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 11, 2025 | IN | C$51.67 | Aug 7, 2025 | −0.4% | ✕ wrong |
| May 15, 2025 | OUT | C$54.23 | Jun 11, 2025 | −4.7% | ✓ right |
| Dec 27, 2024 | IN | C$55.03 | May 15, 2025 | −1.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 12, 2024 | OUT | C$52.97 | Dec 27, 2024 | +3.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 24, 2024 | IN | C$49.40 | Jul 12, 2024 | +7.2% | ✓ right |
| Dec 27, 2023 | OUT | C$41.40 | Apr 24, 2024 | +19.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 11, 2023 | IN | C$42.02 | Dec 27, 2023 | −1.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 16, 2023 | OUT | C$45.16 | Jul 11, 2023 | −6.9% | ✓ right |
| Sep 8, 2022 | IN | C$46.97 | Jun 16, 2023 | −3.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 2, 2022 | OUT | C$48.43 | Sep 8, 2022 | −3.0% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 50 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.