Volume & money flow · daily rule · Industrials & materials
Money Flow Index on Air Canada
AC with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Money Flow Index (14)
Dashed lines at 20, 80.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2010
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding AC over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2010 | Hold, since 2010 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +5.2% | +14.4% | −2.1% | −0.6% |
| Total return | +130% | +814% | −10% | −3% |
| Worst drawdown | −69.7% | −78.9% | −48.3% | −51.4% |
| Volatility | 33.7% | 45.9% | 25.4% | 36.2% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.27 | 0.49 | −0.11 | 0.06 |
| Time invested | 42% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.6 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 24 of 42 closed calls (57%). In calls averaged +7.1%; out calls saw AC move +12.6% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | AC moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2025 | OUT | C$18.36 | now | +21.5% | open |
| Jan 23, 2025 | IN | C$20.08 | May 21, 2025 | −8.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 21, 2024 | OUT | C$18.31 | Jan 23, 2025 | +9.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 26, 2024 | IN | C$17.54 | Oct 21, 2024 | +4.4% | ✓ right |
| Apr 9, 2024 | OUT | C$19.69 | Jun 26, 2024 | −10.9% | ✓ right |
| Aug 11, 2023 | IN | C$23.60 | Apr 9, 2024 | −16.6% | ✕ wrong |
| May 18, 2023 | OUT | C$22.23 | Aug 11, 2023 | +6.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 29, 2023 | IN | C$18.52 | May 18, 2023 | +20.0% | ✓ right |
| Aug 17, 2022 | OUT | C$19.35 | Mar 29, 2023 | −4.3% | ✓ right |
| Jul 5, 2021 | IN | C$26.95 | Aug 17, 2022 | −28.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 20, 2020 | OUT | C$21.01 | Jul 5, 2021 | +28.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 2, 2020 | IN | C$34.57 | Nov 20, 2020 | −39.2% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 43 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the 14-day MFI crosses up through 20.
- Out when it crosses down through 80.
The creators also stress divergences, which this rule ignores.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.