Momentum · month-end rule · Crypto miners
12-1 Momentum on Riot Platforms
What the play says
Latest reading: 12-1 return −0.2%
RIOT with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Return from 12 months to 1 month ago
Dashed line at 0.
Growth of $10,000 since 2017
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding RIOT over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2017 | Hold, since 2017 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +21.0% | +18.0% | −2.2% | −8.3% |
| Total return | +511% | +383% | −10% | −35% |
| Worst drawdown | −94.4% | −98.3% | −73.1% | −92.6% |
| Volatility | 88.9% | 112.9% | 65.4% | 94.3% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.61 | 0.67 | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| Time invested | 56% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 0.7 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 3 of 7 closed calls (43%). In calls averaged +137.6%; out calls saw RIOT move +6.4% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | RIOT moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | OUT | $20.15 | now | −17.3% | open |
| Jul 31, 2025 | IN | $13.41 | Sep 30, 2026 | +50.3% | ✓ right |
| May 31, 2024 | OUT | $9.74 | Jul 31, 2025 | +37.7% | ✕ wrong |
| May 31, 2023 | IN | $12.00 | May 31, 2024 | −18.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 28, 2022 | OUT | $17.23 | May 31, 2023 | −30.4% | ✓ right |
| Jul 31, 2020 | IN | $2.64 | Feb 28, 2022 | +552.7% | ✓ right |
| Oct 31, 2018 | OUT | $2.36 | Jul 31, 2020 | +11.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 31, 2017 | IN | $3.57 | Oct 31, 2018 | −33.8% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 8 of 8 calls shown.
How the play works
- In at month-end when the return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago is above zero.
- Out when it is zero or below.
Jegadeesh and Titman ranked thousands of stocks and bought the winners. Testing one stock against zero is time-series momentum, a related idea.
The skip-a-month form came later; their 1993 paper skipped at most a week.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.