Mean reversion · daily rule · Micro caps
Mayer Multiple on Quantum X
What the play says
QUTX with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2012
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding QUTX over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2012 | Hold, since 2012 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −78.4% | −80.5% | −95.4% | −95.0% |
| Total return | −100% | −100% | −100% | −100% |
| Worst drawdown | −100.0% | −100.0% | −100.0% | −100.0% |
| Volatility | 327,406.7% | 327,406.7% | 443.3% | 451.0% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| Time invested | 90% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.5 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 28 of 36 closed calls (78%). In calls averaged +410.0%; out calls saw QUTX move +189.7% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | QUTX moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2025 | IN | $0.00440 | now | −79.5% | open |
| Jul 11, 2025 | OUT | $0.00500 | Jul 16, 2025 | −12.0% | ✓ right |
| Jul 9, 2025 | IN | $0.00430 | Jul 11, 2025 | +16.3% | ✓ right |
| Jul 7, 2025 | OUT | $0.00450 | Jul 9, 2025 | −4.4% | ✓ right |
| Jul 1, 2025 | IN | $0.00390 | Jul 7, 2025 | +15.4% | ✓ right |
| Mar 31, 2025 | OUT | $0.00180 | Jul 1, 2025 | +116.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 27, 2025 | IN | $0.000700 | Mar 31, 2025 | +157.1% | ✓ right |
| Dec 31, 2024 | OUT | $0.000800 | Mar 27, 2025 | −12.5% | ✓ right |
| Nov 28, 2018 | IN | $110,000,000 | Dec 31, 2024 | −100.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 27, 2018 | OUT | $180,000,000 | Nov 28, 2018 | −38.9% | ✓ right |
| Nov 13, 2018 | IN | $140,000,000 | Nov 27, 2018 | +28.6% | ✓ right |
| Oct 31, 2018 | OUT | $140,000,000 | Nov 13, 2018 | 0.0% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 37 calls shown.
How the play works
- In while the close is less than 2.4 times its 200-day average.
- Out when it reaches 2.4 or more.
Mayer used it to decide when to keep buying, not when to sell. Selling above 2.4 is Be The Puck's reading.
On ordinary stocks a price 2.4 times the 200-day is rare, so this is close to buy and hold.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.