Mean reversion · daily rule · Metals & mining
Bollinger Reversion on Osisko Gold Royalties
What the play says
OR with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2015
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding OR over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2015 | Hold, since 2015 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +11.5% | +10.6% | +14.4% | +26.9% |
| Total return | +258% | +227% | +95% | +228% |
| Worst drawdown | −54.4% | −59.0% | −16.5% | −39.4% |
| Volatility | 20.7% | 37.1% | 14.9% | 34.8% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.53 | 0.40 | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| Time invested | 22% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 8.9 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 73 of 104 closed calls (70%). In calls averaged +2.4%; out calls saw OR move +1.0% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | OR moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 15, 2026 | OUT | C$50.37 | now | −5.9% | open |
| Jun 10, 2026 | IN | C$43.69 | Jun 15, 2026 | +15.3% | ✓ right |
| May 11, 2026 | OUT | C$54.27 | Jun 10, 2026 | −19.5% | ✓ right |
| Apr 28, 2026 | IN | C$51.26 | May 11, 2026 | +5.9% | ✓ right |
| Mar 31, 2026 | OUT | C$52.76 | Apr 28, 2026 | −2.9% | ✓ right |
| Mar 18, 2026 | IN | C$50.27 | Mar 31, 2026 | +5.0% | ✓ right |
| Nov 12, 2025 | OUT | C$46.40 | Mar 18, 2026 | +8.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 21, 2025 | IN | C$47.44 | Nov 12, 2025 | −2.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 4, 2025 | OUT | C$35.08 | Oct 21, 2025 | +35.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 27, 2025 | IN | C$33.94 | Jul 4, 2025 | +3.4% | ✓ right |
| Jan 9, 2025 | OUT | C$27.27 | Jun 27, 2025 | +24.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 20, 2024 | IN | C$25.78 | Jan 9, 2025 | +5.8% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 105 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.