Mean reversion · daily rule · Micro caps
Mayer Multiple on Ocean Power Technologies
What the play says
OPTT with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2008
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding OPTT over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2008 | Hold, since 2008 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +51.6% | −35.4% | +1,662.5% | −19.5% |
| Total return | +233,918% | −100% | +158,842,513% | −66% |
| Worst drawdown | −100.0% | −100.0% | −94.3% | −98.2% |
| Volatility | 1,474.3% | 1,475.6% | 2,842.0% | 2,844.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.52 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.96 |
| Time invested | 97% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.8 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 28 of 34 closed calls (82%). In calls averaged +645.4%; out calls saw OPTT move −33.7% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | OPTT moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | IN | $1.02 | now | −29.4% | open |
| Sep 14, 2026 | OUT | $2.73 | Oct 1, 2026 | −62.6% | ✓ right |
| Aug 12, 2026 | IN | $0.200 | Sep 14, 2026 | +1,265.0% | ✓ right |
| Aug 11, 2026 | OUT | $6.00 | Aug 12, 2026 | −96.7% | ✓ right |
| Aug 10, 2026 | IN | $0.190 | Aug 11, 2026 | +3,057.9% | ✓ right |
| Aug 7, 2026 | OUT | $5.40 | Aug 10, 2026 | −96.5% | ✓ right |
| Aug 5, 2026 | IN | $0.180 | Aug 7, 2026 | +2,900.0% | ✓ right |
| Aug 4, 2026 | OUT | $5.40 | Aug 5, 2026 | −96.7% | ✓ right |
| Jul 30, 2026 | IN | $0.160 | Aug 4, 2026 | +3,275.0% | ✓ right |
| Jul 29, 2026 | OUT | $4.50 | Jul 30, 2026 | −96.4% | ✓ right |
| Feb 14, 2025 | IN | $0.740 | Jul 29, 2026 | +508.1% | ✓ right |
| Feb 12, 2025 | OUT | $0.800 | Feb 14, 2025 | −7.5% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 35 calls shown.
How the play works
- In while the close is less than 2.4 times its 200-day average.
- Out when it reaches 2.4 or more.
Mayer used it to decide when to keep buying, not when to sell. Selling above 2.4 is Be The Puck's reading.
On ordinary stocks a price 2.4 times the 200-day is rare, so this is close to buy and hold.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.