Mean reversion · daily rule · Metals & mining
Bollinger Reversion on OceanaGold
What the play says
OGC with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2007
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding OGC over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2007 | Hold, since 2007 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +13.5% | +9.9% | +23.2% | +42.7% |
| Total return | +989% | +494% | +183% | +487% |
| Worst drawdown | −72.2% | −95.6% | −20.1% | −46.9% |
| Volatility | 35.9% | 64.1% | 24.1% | 50.1% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.83 | 0.88 |
| Time invested | 23% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 9.0 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 120 of 170 closed calls (71%). In calls averaged +3.6%; out calls saw OGC move +4.7% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | OGC moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | OUT | C$34.43 | now | +11.9% | open |
| Jul 16, 2026 | IN | C$31.55 | Jul 22, 2026 | +9.1% | ✓ right |
| Jun 16, 2026 | OUT | C$39.90 | Jul 16, 2026 | −20.9% | ✓ right |
| Jun 5, 2026 | IN | C$35.73 | Jun 16, 2026 | +11.7% | ✓ right |
| May 11, 2026 | OUT | C$44.44 | Jun 5, 2026 | −19.6% | ✓ right |
| Apr 28, 2026 | IN | C$41.82 | May 11, 2026 | +6.2% | ✓ right |
| Apr 7, 2026 | OUT | C$45.15 | Apr 28, 2026 | −7.4% | ✓ right |
| Mar 17, 2026 | IN | C$45.27 | Apr 7, 2026 | −0.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 22, 2025 | OUT | C$19.65 | Mar 17, 2026 | +130.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 27, 2025 | IN | C$18.46 | Jul 22, 2025 | +6.4% | ✓ right |
| Mar 13, 2025 | OUT | C$12.04 | Jun 27, 2025 | +53.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 21, 2025 | IN | C$11.79 | Mar 13, 2025 | +2.1% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 171 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.