Momentum · month-end rule · Big tech
12-1 Momentum on Meta Platforms
What the play says
Latest reading: 12-1 return −21.9%
META with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Return from 12 months to 1 month ago
Dashed line at 0.
Growth of $10,000 since 2013
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding META over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2013 | Hold, since 2013 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +23.6% | +29.8% | +16.2% | +19.0% |
| Total return | +1,583% | +3,128% | +111% | +137% |
| Worst drawdown | −51.2% | −76.7% | −46.3% | −74.4% |
| Volatility | 31.3% | 38.6% | 32.4% | 45.3% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.78 | 0.82 | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| Time invested | 82% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.0 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 7 of 14 closed calls (50%). In calls averaged +77.0%; out calls saw META move +8.8% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | META moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | OUT | $631.43 | now | +20.8% | open |
| Feb 27, 2026 | IN | $646.52 | May 29, 2026 | −2.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 30, 2026 | OUT | $714.66 | Feb 27, 2026 | −9.5% | ✓ right |
| Apr 28, 2023 | IN | $238.04 | Jan 30, 2026 | +200.2% | ✓ right |
| Mar 31, 2022 | OUT | $220.25 | Apr 28, 2023 | +8.1% | ✕ wrong |
| May 29, 2020 | IN | $222.96 | Mar 31, 2022 | −1.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 30, 2020 | OUT | $202.77 | May 29, 2020 | +10.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 31, 2019 | IN | $192.39 | Apr 30, 2020 | +5.4% | ✓ right |
| Jun 28, 2019 | OUT | $191.17 | Jul 31, 2019 | +0.6% | ✕ wrong |
| May 31, 2019 | IN | $175.79 | Jun 28, 2019 | +8.8% | ✓ right |
| Apr 30, 2019 | OUT | $191.56 | May 31, 2019 | −8.2% | ✓ right |
| Mar 29, 2019 | IN | $165.11 | Apr 30, 2019 | +16.0% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 15 calls shown.
How the play works
- In at month-end when the return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago is above zero.
- Out when it is zero or below.
Jegadeesh and Titman ranked thousands of stocks and bought the winners. Testing one stock against zero is time-series momentum, a related idea.
The skip-a-month form came later; their 1993 paper skipped at most a week.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.