Mean reversion · daily rule · Industrials & materials
Bollinger Reversion on MDA Space
What the play says
MDA with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2021
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding MDA over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2021 | Hold, since 2021 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +9.9% | +18.1% | +7.6% | +19.8% |
| Total return | +67% | +146% | +44% | +146% |
| Worst drawdown | −39.7% | −65.7% | −39.7% | −64.7% |
| Volatility | 25.9% | 49.8% | 26.6% | 51.2% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.36 | 0.51 | 0.26 | 0.53 |
| Time invested | 22% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 9.4 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 37 of 51 closed calls (73%). In calls averaged +2.1%; out calls saw MDA move +5.0% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | MDA moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | IN | C$38.81 | now | +1.0% | open |
| Aug 4, 2026 | OUT | C$48.10 | Oct 8, 2026 | −19.3% | ✓ right |
| Jul 10, 2026 | IN | C$48.17 | Aug 4, 2026 | −0.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 8, 2026 | OUT | C$40.73 | Jul 10, 2026 | +18.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 26, 2026 | IN | C$36.95 | Apr 8, 2026 | +10.2% | ✓ right |
| Nov 27, 2025 | OUT | C$24.18 | Mar 26, 2026 | +52.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 30, 2025 | IN | C$28.94 | Nov 27, 2025 | −16.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 29, 2025 | OUT | C$35.12 | Oct 30, 2025 | −17.6% | ✓ right |
| Sep 8, 2025 | IN | C$32.99 | Sep 29, 2025 | +6.5% | ✓ right |
| Apr 24, 2025 | OUT | C$26.72 | Sep 8, 2025 | +23.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 3, 2025 | IN | C$26.14 | Apr 24, 2025 | +2.2% | ✓ right |
| Feb 19, 2025 | OUT | C$25.51 | Apr 3, 2025 | +2.5% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 52 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.