Mean reversion · daily rule · Real estate
Bollinger Reversion on FirstService
What the play says
FSV with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2015
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding FSV over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2015 | Hold, since 2015 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +5.8% | +17.7% | +4.7% | −4.0% |
| Total return | +90% | +528% | +26% | −18% |
| Worst drawdown | −35.9% | −42.8% | −27.0% | −42.6% |
| Volatility | 15.5% | 26.8% | 14.4% | 24.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.30 | 0.66 | 0.13 | −0.19 |
| Time invested | 21% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 8.5 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 62 of 96 closed calls (65%). In calls averaged +1.2%; out calls saw FSV move +3.9% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | FSV moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | OUT | C$185.09 | now | +0.6% | open |
| Sep 10, 2026 | IN | C$187.85 | Oct 9, 2026 | −1.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 4, 2026 | OUT | C$199.09 | Sep 10, 2026 | −5.6% | ✓ right |
| Aug 31, 2026 | IN | C$192.41 | Sep 4, 2026 | +3.5% | ✓ right |
| Aug 5, 2026 | OUT | C$202.12 | Aug 31, 2026 | −4.8% | ✓ right |
| Jul 23, 2026 | IN | C$184.06 | Aug 5, 2026 | +9.8% | ✓ right |
| May 25, 2026 | OUT | C$183.09 | Jul 23, 2026 | +0.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 29, 2026 | IN | C$182.67 | May 25, 2026 | +0.2% | ✓ right |
| Apr 2, 2026 | OUT | C$193.55 | Apr 29, 2026 | −5.6% | ✓ right |
| Mar 11, 2026 | IN | C$195.90 | Apr 2, 2026 | −1.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 26, 2026 | OUT | C$215.14 | Mar 11, 2026 | −8.9% | ✓ right |
| Feb 12, 2026 | IN | C$203.13 | Feb 26, 2026 | +5.9% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 97 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.