Momentum · month-end rule · Energy & power
12-1 Momentum on Fluence Energy
What the play says
Latest reading: 12-1 return 0.1%
FLNC with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Return from 12 months to 1 month ago
Dashed line at 0.
Growth of $10,000 since 2022
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding FLNC over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2022 | Hold, since 2022 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −21.2% | −18.2% | −21.2% | −18.2% |
| Total return | −61% | −54% | −61% | −54% |
| Worst drawdown | −79.0% | −88.4% | −79.0% | −88.4% |
| Volatility | 68.2% | 97.8% | 68.2% | 97.8% |
| Sharpe ratio | −0.08 | 0.24 | −0.08 | 0.24 |
| Time invested | 49% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.8 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 3 of 7 closed calls (43%). In calls averaged +2.1%; out calls saw FLNC move +8.0% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | FLNC moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | IN | $19.64 | now | −65.5% | open |
| Nov 29, 2024 | OUT | $18.81 | Nov 28, 2025 | +4.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 31, 2024 | IN | $21.75 | Nov 29, 2024 | −13.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 28, 2024 | OUT | $17.34 | Oct 31, 2024 | +25.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 29, 2024 | IN | $15.29 | Mar 28, 2024 | +13.4% | ✓ right |
| Jan 31, 2024 | OUT | $19.87 | Feb 29, 2024 | −23.0% | ✓ right |
| Feb 28, 2023 | IN | $18.67 | Jan 31, 2024 | +6.4% | ✓ right |
| Oct 31, 2022 | OUT | $14.93 | Feb 28, 2023 | +25.1% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 8 of 8 calls shown.
How the play works
- In at month-end when the return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago is above zero.
- Out when it is zero or below.
Jegadeesh and Titman ranked thousands of stocks and bought the winners. Testing one stock against zero is time-series momentum, a related idea.
The skip-a-month form came later; their 1993 paper skipped at most a week.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.