Mean reversion · daily rule · Healthcare
Bollinger Reversion on Alnylam Pharmaceuticals
What the play says
ALNY with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding ALNY over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +5.7% | +16.9% | +3.9% | +1.9% |
| Total return | +236% | +2,853% | +21% | +10% |
| Worst drawdown | −55.1% | −83.6% | −38.7% | −58.2% |
| Volatility | 27.5% | 56.8% | 20.8% | 50.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.27 | 0.52 | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| Time invested | 23% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 8.0 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 108 of 173 closed calls (62%). In calls averaged +1.7%; out calls saw ALNY move +5.8% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | ALNY moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | IN | $231.18 | now | −3.2% | open |
| Aug 19, 2026 | OUT | $242.61 | Oct 1, 2026 | −4.7% | ✓ right |
| Jul 30, 2026 | IN | $205.48 | Aug 19, 2026 | +18.1% | ✓ right |
| Mar 25, 2026 | OUT | $328.70 | Jul 30, 2026 | −37.5% | ✓ right |
| Mar 23, 2026 | IN | $306.66 | Mar 25, 2026 | +7.2% | ✓ right |
| Feb 19, 2026 | OUT | $339.37 | Mar 23, 2026 | −9.6% | ✓ right |
| Jan 12, 2026 | IN | $370.91 | Feb 19, 2026 | −8.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 6, 2026 | OUT | $406.40 | Jan 12, 2026 | −8.7% | ✓ right |
| Dec 9, 2025 | IN | $415.21 | Jan 6, 2026 | −2.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 17, 2025 | OUT | $460.54 | Dec 9, 2025 | −9.8% | ✓ right |
| Nov 3, 2025 | IN | $434.07 | Nov 17, 2025 | +6.1% | ✓ right |
| Mar 17, 2025 | OUT | $253.11 | Nov 3, 2025 | +71.5% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 174 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.