Mean reversion · daily rule · Consumer & retail
Bollinger Reversion on Airbnb
What the play says
ABNB with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2021
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding ABNB over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2021 | Hold, since 2021 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +10.5% | +2.0% | +11.7% | −0.9% |
| Total return | +77% | +12% | +73% | −5% |
| Worst drawdown | −32.0% | −62.0% | −32.0% | −60.2% |
| Volatility | 24.7% | 45.4% | 25.6% | 44.3% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.39 | 0.20 | 0.41 | 0.11 |
| Time invested | 26% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 10.5 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 37 of 60 closed calls (62%). In calls averaged +1.9%; out calls saw ABNB move −0.5% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | ABNB moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | OUT | $164.07 | now | +0.9% | open |
| Sep 8, 2026 | IN | $174.54 | Oct 5, 2026 | −6.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 27, 2026 | OUT | $146.86 | Sep 8, 2026 | +18.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 22, 2026 | IN | $140.05 | Jul 27, 2026 | +4.9% | ✓ right |
| Jun 15, 2026 | OUT | $138.96 | Jul 22, 2026 | +0.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 10, 2026 | IN | $129.10 | Jun 15, 2026 | +7.6% | ✓ right |
| Jun 1, 2026 | OUT | $137.87 | Jun 10, 2026 | −6.4% | ✓ right |
| May 12, 2026 | IN | $135.48 | Jun 1, 2026 | +1.8% | ✓ right |
| Apr 8, 2026 | OUT | $131.40 | May 12, 2026 | +3.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 27, 2026 | IN | $122.87 | Apr 8, 2026 | +6.9% | ✓ right |
| Feb 20, 2026 | OUT | $127.89 | Mar 27, 2026 | −3.9% | ✓ right |
| Jan 16, 2026 | IN | $130.66 | Feb 20, 2026 | −2.1% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 61 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.