Momentum · month-end rule · Metals & mining
12-1 Momentum on Vizsla Silver
What the play says
Latest reading: 12-1 return −6.8%
VZLA with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Return from 12 months to 1 month ago
Dashed line at 0.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2019
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding VZLA over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2019 | Hold, since 2019 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +37.3% | +43.6% | +6.1% | +13.0% |
| Total return | +794% | +1,122% | +34% | +84% |
| Worst drawdown | −73.1% | −73.1% | −65.2% | −64.8% |
| Volatility | 79.6% | 84.1% | 52.8% | 61.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.72 | 0.77 | 0.31 | 0.44 |
| Time invested | 79% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.0 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 3 of 7 closed calls (43%). In calls averaged +115.0%; out calls saw VZLA move +22.2% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | VZLA moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | OUT | C$5.60 | now | −19.3% | open |
| May 31, 2024 | IN | C$2.50 | Aug 31, 2026 | +124.0% | ✓ right |
| Mar 28, 2024 | OUT | C$1.77 | May 31, 2024 | +41.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 29, 2023 | IN | C$1.69 | Mar 28, 2024 | +4.7% | ✓ right |
| Sep 29, 2023 | OUT | C$1.46 | Dec 29, 2023 | +15.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 28, 2023 | IN | C$1.95 | Sep 29, 2023 | −25.1% | ✕ wrong |
| May 31, 2022 | OUT | C$1.78 | Apr 28, 2023 | +9.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 31, 2019 | IN | C$0.390 | May 31, 2022 | +356.4% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 8 of 8 calls shown.
How the play works
- In at month-end when the return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago is above zero.
- Out when it is zero or below.
Jegadeesh and Titman ranked thousands of stocks and bought the winners. Testing one stock against zero is time-series momentum, a related idea.
The skip-a-month form came later; their 1993 paper skipped at most a week.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.