Mean reversion · daily rule · Metals & mining
Bollinger Reversion on Vizsla Silver
What the play says
VZLA with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2018
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding VZLA over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2018 | Hold, since 2018 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +22.1% | +53.8% | +10.0% | +13.0% |
| Total return | +385% | +2,913% | +61% | +84% |
| Worst drawdown | −56.2% | −73.1% | −41.1% | −64.8% |
| Volatility | 37.2% | 90.7% | 29.7% | 61.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.65 | 0.85 | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| Time invested | 17% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 7.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 40 of 57 closed calls (70%). In calls averaged +6.9%; out calls saw VZLA move +18.3% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | VZLA moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | IN | C$5.00 | now | −9.6% | open |
| Sep 17, 2026 | OUT | C$5.59 | Oct 5, 2026 | −10.6% | ✓ right |
| Sep 16, 2026 | IN | C$5.15 | Sep 17, 2026 | +8.5% | ✓ right |
| Jul 21, 2026 | OUT | C$4.62 | Sep 16, 2026 | +11.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 8, 2026 | IN | C$4.20 | Jul 21, 2026 | +10.0% | ✓ right |
| May 6, 2026 | OUT | C$4.72 | Jul 8, 2026 | −11.0% | ✓ right |
| May 5, 2026 | IN | C$4.41 | May 6, 2026 | +7.0% | ✓ right |
| Apr 13, 2026 | OUT | C$4.57 | May 5, 2026 | −3.5% | ✓ right |
| Mar 18, 2026 | IN | C$4.59 | Apr 13, 2026 | −0.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 27, 2026 | OUT | C$5.97 | Mar 18, 2026 | −23.1% | ✓ right |
| Jan 30, 2026 | IN | C$6.89 | Feb 27, 2026 | −13.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 14, 2025 | OUT | C$3.11 | Jan 30, 2026 | +121.5% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 58 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.