Mean reversion · daily rule · Big tech
RSI(2) Pullback on Tesla
TSLA with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
RSI (2)
Dashed line at 10.
Growth of $10,000 since 2011
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding TSLA over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2011 | Hold, since 2011 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +5.6% | +42.0% | −0.1% | +6.8% |
| Total return | +131% | +22,477% | 0% | +39% |
| Worst drawdown | −49.7% | −73.6% | −49.7% | −73.6% |
| Volatility | 22.7% | 56.7% | 24.0% | 59.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.28 | 0.87 | −0.04 | 0.35 |
| Time invested | 11% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 13.0 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 123 of 201 closed calls (61%). In calls averaged +1.0%; out calls saw TSLA move +8.4% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | TSLA moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 11, 2026 | OUT | $399.15 | now | −6.0% | open |
| Jun 1, 2026 | IN | $415.88 | Jun 11, 2026 | −4.0% | ✕ wrong |
| May 21, 2026 | OUT | $417.85 | Jun 1, 2026 | −0.5% | ✓ right |
| May 18, 2026 | IN | $409.99 | May 21, 2026 | +1.9% | ✓ right |
| Mar 4, 2026 | OUT | $405.94 | May 18, 2026 | +1.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 3, 2026 | IN | $392.43 | Mar 4, 2026 | +3.4% | ✓ right |
| Feb 24, 2026 | OUT | $409.38 | Mar 3, 2026 | −4.1% | ✓ right |
| Feb 23, 2026 | IN | $399.83 | Feb 24, 2026 | +2.4% | ✓ right |
| Feb 9, 2026 | OUT | $417.32 | Feb 23, 2026 | −4.2% | ✓ right |
| Feb 4, 2026 | IN | $406.01 | Feb 9, 2026 | +2.8% | ✓ right |
| Jan 30, 2026 | OUT | $430.41 | Feb 4, 2026 | −5.7% | ✓ right |
| Jan 29, 2026 | IN | $416.56 | Jan 30, 2026 | +3.3% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 202 calls shown.
How the play works
- In when the stock is above its 200-day average and the 2-day RSI is below 10.
- Out on a close above the 5-day average.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.