Momentum · month-end rule · Software & devices
12-1 Momentum on SuperX AI Technology
What the play says
Latest reading: 12-1 return −85.6%
SUPX with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Return from 12 months to 1 month ago
Dashed line at 0.
Growth of $10,000 since 2025
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SUPX over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2025 | Hold, since 2025 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −16.6% | −23.5% | −16.6% | −23.5% |
| Total return | −23% | −32% | −23% | −32% |
| Worst drawdown | −90.6% | −92.3% | −90.6% | −92.3% |
| Volatility | 127.2% | 144.5% | 127.2% | 144.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.44 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| Time invested | 69% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 0.7 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 0 of 1 closed calls (0%). In calls averaged −23.0%; out calls saw SUPX move – on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SUPX moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2026 | OUT | $7.78 | now | −10.3% | open |
| Apr 30, 2025 | IN | $10.10 | Apr 30, 2026 | −23.0% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 2 of 2 calls shown.
How the play works
- In at month-end when the return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago is above zero.
- Out when it is zero or below.
Jegadeesh and Titman ranked thousands of stocks and bought the winners. Testing one stock against zero is time-series momentum, a related idea.
The skip-a-month form came later; their 1993 paper skipped at most a week.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.