Mean reversion · daily rule · Energy & power
Bollinger Reversion on Suncor Energy
What the play says
SU with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding SU over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +2.2% | +10.8% | +10.9% | +35.4% |
| Total return | +60% | +827% | +67% | +352% |
| Worst drawdown | −64.4% | −73.9% | −19.5% | −30.6% |
| Volatility | 22.2% | 36.8% | 14.4% | 30.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.13 | 0.42 | 0.52 | 1.02 |
| Time invested | 21% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 8.1 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 104 of 176 closed calls (59%). In calls averaged +0.8%; out calls saw SU move +2.9% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | SU moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 2026 | OUT | C$79.98 | now | +33.6% | open |
| Jun 16, 2026 | IN | C$80.90 | Jul 7, 2026 | −1.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 28, 2026 | OUT | C$87.98 | Jun 16, 2026 | −8.0% | ✓ right |
| Apr 17, 2026 | IN | C$82.61 | Apr 28, 2026 | +6.5% | ✓ right |
| Dec 30, 2025 | OUT | C$59.72 | Apr 17, 2026 | +38.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 15, 2025 | IN | C$58.84 | Dec 30, 2025 | +1.5% | ✓ right |
| Oct 31, 2025 | OUT | C$54.17 | Dec 15, 2025 | +8.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 10, 2025 | IN | C$53.62 | Oct 31, 2025 | +1.0% | ✓ right |
| Apr 25, 2025 | OUT | C$46.84 | Oct 10, 2025 | +14.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 4, 2025 | IN | C$44.86 | Apr 25, 2025 | +4.4% | ✓ right |
| Mar 17, 2025 | OUT | C$51.05 | Apr 4, 2025 | −12.1% | ✓ right |
| Mar 3, 2025 | IN | C$49.33 | Mar 17, 2025 | +3.5% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 177 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.