Mean reversion · daily rule · Industrials & materials
Bollinger Reversion on Old Dominion Freight Line
What the play says
ODFL with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding ODFL over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +8.7% | +20.2% | +13.8% | +5.7% |
| Total return | +510% | +5,397% | +91% | +32% |
| Worst drawdown | −29.0% | −50.9% | −17.8% | −45.2% |
| Volatility | 17.9% | 37.1% | 15.7% | 37.0% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.45 | 0.63 | 0.66 | 0.23 |
| Time invested | 20% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 7.6 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 103 of 166 closed calls (62%). In calls averaged +2.1%; out calls saw ODFL move +4.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | ODFL moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | OUT | $180.48 | now | +1.5% | open |
| Aug 25, 2026 | IN | $198.03 | Oct 2, 2026 | −8.9% | ✕ wrong |
| May 20, 2026 | OUT | $209.24 | Aug 25, 2026 | −5.4% | ✓ right |
| May 4, 2026 | IN | $191.64 | May 20, 2026 | +9.2% | ✓ right |
| Mar 31, 2026 | OUT | $194.85 | May 4, 2026 | −1.6% | ✓ right |
| Mar 12, 2026 | IN | $175.74 | Mar 31, 2026 | +10.9% | ✓ right |
| Dec 1, 2025 | OUT | $138.81 | Mar 12, 2026 | +26.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 14, 2025 | IN | $131.47 | Dec 1, 2025 | +5.6% | ✓ right |
| Oct 20, 2025 | OUT | $139.84 | Nov 14, 2025 | −6.0% | ✓ right |
| Oct 10, 2025 | IN | $133.48 | Oct 20, 2025 | +4.8% | ✓ right |
| Oct 6, 2025 | OUT | $141.94 | Oct 10, 2025 | −6.0% | ✓ right |
| Sep 17, 2025 | IN | $140.91 | Oct 6, 2025 | +0.7% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 167 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.