Mean reversion · daily rule · Metals & mining
Bollinger Reversion on NGEx Minerals
What the play says
NGEX with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2019
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding NGEX over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2019 | Hold, since 2019 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +14.8% | +74.3% | +9.5% | +92.6% |
| Total return | +164% | +4,891% | +57% | +2,512% |
| Worst drawdown | −44.3% | −66.7% | −44.3% | −66.7% |
| Volatility | 29.3% | 69.0% | 27.5% | 61.4% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.52 | 1.10 | 0.33 | 1.31 |
| Time invested | 15% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 6.7 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 29 of 47 closed calls (62%). In calls averaged +4.3%; out calls saw NGEX move +25.7% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | NGEX moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | IN | C$23.16 | now | −3.0% | open |
| Sep 8, 2026 | OUT | C$27.99 | Oct 8, 2026 | −17.3% | ✓ right |
| Sep 1, 2026 | IN | C$25.55 | Sep 8, 2026 | +9.5% | ✓ right |
| Mar 31, 2026 | OUT | C$25.30 | Sep 1, 2026 | +1.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 6, 2026 | IN | C$26.95 | Mar 31, 2026 | −6.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 12, 2025 | OUT | C$24.70 | Mar 6, 2026 | +9.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 27, 2025 | IN | C$22.43 | Nov 12, 2025 | +10.1% | ✓ right |
| Apr 24, 2025 | OUT | C$12.61 | Oct 27, 2025 | +77.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 4, 2025 | IN | C$12.02 | Apr 24, 2025 | +4.9% | ✓ right |
| Mar 19, 2025 | OUT | C$13.76 | Apr 4, 2025 | −12.6% | ✓ right |
| Mar 12, 2025 | IN | C$13.03 | Mar 19, 2025 | +5.6% | ✓ right |
| Nov 14, 2024 | OUT | C$11.89 | Mar 12, 2025 | +9.6% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 48 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.