Mean reversion · daily rule · Metals & mining
Bollinger Reversion on Montage Gold
What the play says
MAU with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2020
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding MAU over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2020 | Hold, since 2020 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +13.8% | +66.8% | +13.2% | +90.5% |
| Total return | +113% | +1,904% | +85% | +2,368% |
| Worst drawdown | −36.1% | −52.5% | −36.1% | −48.9% |
| Volatility | 23.4% | 54.8% | 20.6% | 55.4% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.53 | 1.15 | 0.52 | 1.37 |
| Time invested | 16% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 6.8 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 27 of 40 closed calls (68%). In calls averaged +3.6%; out calls saw MAU move +24.2% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | MAU moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | OUT | C$15.05 | now | +13.2% | open |
| Apr 28, 2026 | IN | C$13.71 | May 11, 2026 | +9.8% | ✓ right |
| Mar 30, 2026 | OUT | C$14.81 | Apr 28, 2026 | −7.4% | ✓ right |
| Mar 19, 2026 | IN | C$12.98 | Mar 30, 2026 | +14.1% | ✓ right |
| Oct 31, 2025 | OUT | C$6.96 | Mar 19, 2026 | +86.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 27, 2025 | IN | C$6.35 | Oct 31, 2025 | +9.6% | ✓ right |
| Jul 5, 2024 | OUT | C$1.41 | Oct 27, 2025 | +350.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 17, 2024 | IN | C$1.35 | Jul 5, 2024 | +4.4% | ✓ right |
| Feb 15, 2024 | OUT | C$0.710 | Jun 17, 2024 | +90.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 13, 2024 | IN | C$0.650 | Feb 15, 2024 | +9.2% | ✓ right |
| Jul 12, 2023 | OUT | C$0.630 | Feb 13, 2024 | +3.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 15, 2023 | IN | C$0.620 | Jul 12, 2023 | +1.6% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 41 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.