Momentum · month-end rule · Metals & mining
12-1 Momentum on Lithium Americas
What the play says
Latest reading: 12-1 return −45.8%
LAC with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Return from 12 months to 1 month ago
Dashed line at 0.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2024
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding LAC over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2024 | Hold, since 2024 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +3.2% | −28.0% | +3.2% | −28.0% |
| Total return | +6% | −47% | +6% | −47% |
| Worst drawdown | −72.9% | −77.7% | −72.9% | −77.7% |
| Volatility | 98.2% | 105.0% | 98.2% | 105.0% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.38 | 0.07 | 0.38 | 0.07 |
| Time invested | 56% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.1 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 2 of 4 closed calls (50%). In calls averaged +1.5%; out calls saw LAC move −10.3% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | LAC moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | OUT | C$4.31 | now | −26.9% | open |
| Aug 29, 2025 | IN | C$4.11 | Aug 31, 2026 | +4.9% | ✓ right |
| Jul 31, 2025 | OUT | C$3.57 | Aug 29, 2025 | +15.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 30, 2025 | IN | C$3.64 | Jul 31, 2025 | −1.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 31, 2024 | OUT | C$5.66 | Jun 30, 2025 | −35.7% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 5 of 5 calls shown.
How the play works
- In at month-end when the return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago is above zero.
- Out when it is zero or below.
Jegadeesh and Titman ranked thousands of stocks and bought the winners. Testing one stock against zero is time-series momentum, a related idea.
The skip-a-month form came later; their 1993 paper skipped at most a week.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.