Momentum · month-end rule · Consumer & retail
12-1 Momentum on Jamieson Wellness
What the play says
Latest reading: 12-1 return 29.4%
JWEL with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Return from 12 months to 1 month ago
Dashed line at 0.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2018
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding JWEL over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2018 | Hold, since 2018 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +1.2% | +9.5% | −0.9% | +6.2% |
| Total return | +10% | +109% | −4% | +35% |
| Worst drawdown | −45.8% | −45.8% | −35.9% | −44.5% |
| Volatility | 22.6% | 27.9% | 18.6% | 25.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.05 | 0.37 | −0.16 | 0.22 |
| Time invested | 62% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 5 of 18 closed calls (28%). In calls averaged +1.0%; out calls saw JWEL move +8.9% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | JWEL moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2026 | IN | C$41.45 | now | +9.7% | open |
| May 29, 2026 | OUT | C$34.99 | Jun 30, 2026 | +18.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 30, 2026 | IN | C$34.02 | May 29, 2026 | +2.8% | ✓ right |
| Nov 28, 2025 | OUT | C$33.89 | Jan 30, 2026 | +0.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 30, 2024 | IN | C$29.59 | Nov 28, 2025 | +14.5% | ✓ right |
| May 31, 2023 | OUT | C$28.04 | Aug 30, 2024 | +5.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 28, 2023 | IN | C$30.59 | May 31, 2023 | −8.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 31, 2023 | OUT | C$30.61 | Apr 28, 2023 | −0.1% | ✓ right |
| Jan 31, 2023 | IN | C$33.71 | Mar 31, 2023 | −9.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 31, 2022 | OUT | C$30.15 | Jan 31, 2023 | +11.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 30, 2022 | IN | C$32.24 | Oct 31, 2022 | −6.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 31, 2022 | OUT | C$31.24 | Jun 30, 2022 | +3.2% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 19 calls shown.
How the play works
- In at month-end when the return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago is above zero.
- Out when it is zero or below.
Jegadeesh and Titman ranked thousands of stocks and bought the winners. Testing one stock against zero is time-series momentum, a related idea.
The skip-a-month form came later; their 1993 paper skipped at most a week.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.