Mean reversion · daily rule · Energy & power
Bollinger Reversion on International Petroleum
What the play says
IPCO with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2017
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding IPCO over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2017 | Hold, since 2017 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +5.1% | +24.5% | +21.2% | +39.1% |
| Total return | +59% | +677% | +161% | +416% |
| Worst drawdown | −72.9% | −84.0% | −23.4% | −36.6% |
| Volatility | 28.7% | 49.2% | 19.1% | 40.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.23 | 0.64 | 0.91 | 0.92 |
| Time invested | 21% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 8.3 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 51 of 78 closed calls (65%). In calls averaged +1.8%; out calls saw IPCO move +6.2% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | IPCO moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | OUT | C$31.24 | now | +19.6% | open |
| Aug 5, 2026 | IN | C$29.48 | Aug 6, 2026 | +6.0% | ✓ right |
| Jul 31, 2026 | OUT | C$31.60 | Aug 5, 2026 | −6.7% | ✓ right |
| Jul 28, 2026 | IN | C$29.65 | Jul 31, 2026 | +6.6% | ✓ right |
| Jul 21, 2026 | OUT | C$31.36 | Jul 28, 2026 | −5.5% | ✓ right |
| Jun 15, 2026 | IN | C$33.37 | Jul 21, 2026 | −6.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 12, 2026 | OUT | C$24.70 | Jun 15, 2026 | +35.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 16, 2025 | IN | C$23.60 | Jan 12, 2026 | +4.7% | ✓ right |
| Nov 3, 2025 | OUT | C$22.70 | Dec 16, 2025 | +4.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 10, 2025 | IN | C$22.43 | Nov 3, 2025 | +1.2% | ✓ right |
| Oct 6, 2025 | OUT | C$24.38 | Oct 10, 2025 | −8.0% | ✓ right |
| Sep 30, 2025 | IN | C$23.22 | Oct 6, 2025 | +5.0% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 79 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.