Mean reversion · daily rule · Micro caps
Bollinger Reversion on MicroCloud Hologram
What the play says
HOLO with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2021
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding HOLO over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2021 | Hold, since 2021 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +0.9% | −88.4% | +0.9% | −88.9% |
| Total return | +4% | −100% | +4% | −100% |
| Worst drawdown | −91.0% | −100.0% | −91.0% | −100.0% |
| Volatility | 491.1% | 518.2% | 496.4% | 523.8% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.39 | 0.22 | 0.40 | 0.22 |
| Time invested | 25% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 7.7 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 28 of 39 closed calls (72%). In calls averaged +18.2%; out calls saw HOLO move −29.6% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | HOLO moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | IN | $1.48 | now | −4.7% | open |
| May 20, 2026 | OUT | $1.74 | Oct 6, 2026 | −14.9% | ✓ right |
| Apr 27, 2026 | IN | $1.73 | May 20, 2026 | +0.6% | ✓ right |
| Apr 6, 2026 | OUT | $2.08 | Apr 27, 2026 | −16.8% | ✓ right |
| Mar 20, 2026 | IN | $1.96 | Apr 6, 2026 | +6.1% | ✓ right |
| Feb 25, 2026 | OUT | $2.27 | Mar 20, 2026 | −13.7% | ✓ right |
| Jan 29, 2026 | IN | $2.47 | Feb 25, 2026 | −8.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 28, 2025 | OUT | $3.58 | Jan 29, 2026 | −31.0% | ✓ right |
| Oct 10, 2025 | IN | $4.54 | Nov 28, 2025 | −21.1% | ✕ wrong |
| May 28, 2025 | OUT | $10.40 | Oct 10, 2025 | −56.3% | ✓ right |
| Apr 8, 2025 | IN | $21.60 | May 28, 2025 | −51.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 19, 2024 | OUT | $333.60 | Apr 8, 2025 | −93.5% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 40 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.