Mean reversion · daily rule · Metals & mining
Bollinger Reversion on G Mining Ventures
What the play says
GMIN with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2019
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding GMIN over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2019 | Hold, since 2019 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +31.8% | +84.2% | +21.2% | +71.9% |
| Total return | +566% | +6,483% | +161% | +1,381% |
| Worst drawdown | −25.0% | −61.3% | −25.0% | −43.6% |
| Volatility | 31.3% | 81.5% | 24.2% | 55.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.94 | 1.09 | 0.76 | 1.18 |
| Time invested | 15% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 6.0 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 27 of 41 closed calls (66%). In calls averaged +9.8%; out calls saw GMIN move +27.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | GMIN moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | IN | C$47.14 | now | +0.6% | open |
| Jun 15, 2026 | OUT | C$42.17 | Oct 1, 2026 | +11.8% | ✕ wrong |
| May 19, 2026 | IN | C$43.66 | Jun 15, 2026 | −3.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 31, 2026 | OUT | C$48.82 | May 19, 2026 | −10.6% | ✓ right |
| Mar 17, 2026 | IN | C$45.90 | Mar 31, 2026 | +6.4% | ✓ right |
| Jul 21, 2025 | OUT | C$17.70 | Mar 17, 2026 | +159.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 16, 2025 | IN | C$16.30 | Jul 21, 2025 | +8.6% | ✓ right |
| Sep 9, 2024 | OUT | C$8.81 | Jul 16, 2025 | +85.0% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 6, 2024 | IN | C$7.90 | Sep 9, 2024 | +11.5% | ✓ right |
| Aug 12, 2024 | OUT | C$9.38 | Sep 6, 2024 | −15.8% | ✓ right |
| Jul 25, 2024 | IN | C$8.66 | Aug 12, 2024 | +8.3% | ✓ right |
| Jun 14, 2024 | OUT | C$8.60 | Jul 25, 2024 | +0.7% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 42 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.