Momentum · month-end rule · Industrials & rentals
12-1 Momentum on Flexsteel Industries
What the play says
Latest reading: 12-1 return 73.9%
FLXS with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Return from 12 months to 1 month ago
Dashed line at 0.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding FLXS over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +11.5% | +10.6% | +15.8% | +26.0% |
| Total return | +956% | +780% | +108% | +215% |
| Worst drawdown | −64.6% | −85.6% | −64.6% | −55.0% |
| Volatility | 33.2% | 45.4% | 42.9% | 55.2% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.44 | 0.41 | 0.46 | 0.62 |
| Time invested | 55% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.3 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 12 of 29 closed calls (41%). In calls averaged +17.3%; out calls saw FLXS move +6.1% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | FLXS moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | IN | $44.64 | now | +95.1% | open |
| Oct 31, 2025 | OUT | $33.65 | Mar 31, 2026 | +32.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 30, 2025 | IN | $45.62 | Oct 31, 2025 | −26.2% | ✕ wrong |
| May 30, 2025 | OUT | $29.61 | Sep 30, 2025 | +54.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 30, 2023 | IN | $17.98 | May 30, 2025 | +64.7% | ✓ right |
| Apr 28, 2023 | OUT | $16.14 | Jun 30, 2023 | +11.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 31, 2023 | IN | $17.97 | Apr 28, 2023 | −10.2% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 30, 2021 | OUT | $25.27 | Mar 31, 2023 | −28.9% | ✓ right |
| Aug 31, 2020 | IN | $14.51 | Nov 30, 2021 | +74.1% | ✓ right |
| Nov 30, 2017 | OUT | $41.02 | Aug 31, 2020 | −64.6% | ✓ right |
| Oct 31, 2017 | IN | $39.66 | Nov 30, 2017 | +3.4% | ✓ right |
| Sep 29, 2017 | OUT | $40.00 | Oct 31, 2017 | −0.8% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 30 calls shown.
How the play works
- In at month-end when the return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago is above zero.
- Out when it is zero or below.
Jegadeesh and Titman ranked thousands of stocks and bought the winners. Testing one stock against zero is time-series momentum, a related idea.
The skip-a-month form came later; their 1993 paper skipped at most a week.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.