Mean reversion · daily rule · Metals & mining
Bollinger Reversion on Equinox Gold
What the play says
EQX with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2014
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding EQX over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2014 | Hold, since 2014 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +57.6% | +14.2% | +34.7% | +9.1% |
| Total return | +24,943% | +400% | +341% | +54% |
| Worst drawdown | −43.3% | −80.5% | −39.8% | −69.3% |
| Volatility | 167.0% | 180.1% | 27.8% | 56.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.48 | 0.39 | 1.07 | 0.37 |
| Time invested | 22% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 9.0 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 88 of 109 closed calls (81%). In calls averaged +18.5%; out calls saw EQX move −4.0% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | EQX moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | IN | C$15.94 | now | −3.1% | open |
| Aug 4, 2026 | OUT | C$13.47 | Sep 28, 2026 | +18.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 16, 2026 | IN | C$12.24 | Aug 4, 2026 | +10.1% | ✓ right |
| Jul 3, 2026 | OUT | C$14.90 | Jul 16, 2026 | −17.9% | ✓ right |
| Jun 10, 2026 | IN | C$13.53 | Jul 3, 2026 | +10.1% | ✓ right |
| May 29, 2026 | OUT | C$18.76 | Jun 10, 2026 | −27.9% | ✓ right |
| May 19, 2026 | IN | C$16.76 | May 29, 2026 | +12.0% | ✓ right |
| May 11, 2026 | OUT | C$20.30 | May 19, 2026 | −17.4% | ✓ right |
| Apr 29, 2026 | IN | C$18.34 | May 11, 2026 | +10.7% | ✓ right |
| Mar 31, 2026 | OUT | C$20.03 | Apr 29, 2026 | −8.4% | ✓ right |
| Mar 18, 2026 | IN | C$18.36 | Mar 31, 2026 | +9.1% | ✓ right |
| Jul 10, 2025 | OUT | C$8.33 | Mar 18, 2026 | +120.5% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 110 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.