Momentum · month-end rule · Energy & power
12-1 Momentum on Eos Energy
What the play says
Latest reading: 12-1 return −71.7%
EOSE with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Return from 12 months to 1 month ago
Dashed line at 0.
Growth of $10,000 since 2021
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding EOSE over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2021 | Hold, since 2021 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −10.0% | −24.5% | −10.0% | −24.5% |
| Total return | −40% | −74% | −40% | −74% |
| Worst drawdown | −87.0% | −92.8% | −87.0% | −92.8% |
| Volatility | 82.9% | 119.8% | 82.9% | 119.8% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.24 | 0.32 | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| Time invested | 52% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 2 of 6 closed calls (33%). In calls averaged +9.4%; out calls saw EOSE move +38.4% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | EOSE moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | OUT | $3.22 | now | −28.0% | open |
| May 29, 2026 | IN | $8.43 | Aug 31, 2026 | −61.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 30, 2026 | OUT | $6.70 | May 29, 2026 | +25.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Sep 30, 2024 | IN | $2.97 | Apr 30, 2026 | +125.6% | ✓ right |
| Dec 29, 2023 | OUT | $1.09 | Sep 30, 2024 | +172.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 28, 2023 | IN | $1.69 | Dec 29, 2023 | −35.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 30, 2021 | OUT | $9.95 | Apr 28, 2023 | −83.0% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 7 of 7 calls shown.
How the play works
- In at month-end when the return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago is above zero.
- Out when it is zero or below.
Jegadeesh and Titman ranked thousands of stocks and bought the winners. Testing one stock against zero is time-series momentum, a related idea.
The skip-a-month form came later; their 1993 paper skipped at most a week.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.