Mean reversion · daily rule · Energy & power
Bollinger Reversion on Enerflex
What the play says
EFX with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2011
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding EFX over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2011 | Hold, since 2011 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +0.7% | +9.9% | +5.8% | +33.2% |
| Total return | +11% | +322% | +33% | +316% |
| Worst drawdown | −67.5% | −76.3% | −30.2% | −53.3% |
| Volatility | 22.2% | 41.1% | 20.4% | 46.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.07 | 0.40 | 0.19 | 0.77 |
| Time invested | 26% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 8.2 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 76 of 124 closed calls (61%). In calls averaged +0.6%; out calls saw EFX move +4.7% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | EFX moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | OUT | C$31.07 | now | +25.9% | open |
| Jul 28, 2026 | IN | C$30.61 | Aug 14, 2026 | +1.5% | ✓ right |
| Jun 19, 2026 | OUT | C$35.06 | Jul 28, 2026 | −12.7% | ✓ right |
| May 27, 2026 | IN | C$34.99 | Jun 19, 2026 | +0.2% | ✓ right |
| Apr 8, 2026 | OUT | C$28.96 | May 27, 2026 | +20.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 1, 2026 | IN | C$27.55 | Apr 8, 2026 | +5.1% | ✓ right |
| May 2, 2025 | OUT | C$9.22 | Apr 1, 2026 | +198.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 4, 2025 | IN | C$9.13 | May 2, 2025 | +1.0% | ✓ right |
| Mar 24, 2025 | OUT | C$11.10 | Apr 4, 2025 | −17.8% | ✓ right |
| Jan 27, 2025 | IN | C$13.62 | Mar 24, 2025 | −18.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Jun 10, 2024 | OUT | C$6.78 | Jan 27, 2025 | +100.8% | ✕ wrong |
| May 8, 2024 | IN | C$6.43 | Jun 10, 2024 | +5.5% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 125 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.