Mean reversion · daily rule · Industrials & materials
Bollinger Reversion on CSX
What the play says
CSX with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding CSX over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +5.0% | +17.1% | +1.5% | +9.5% |
| Total return | +187% | +3,003% | +8% | +57% |
| Worst drawdown | −44.3% | −69.2% | −19.3% | −29.4% |
| Volatility | 17.2% | 30.7% | 12.2% | 23.4% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.27 | 0.61 | −0.12 | 0.34 |
| Time invested | 20% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 7.7 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 101 of 168 closed calls (60%). In calls averaged +1.2%; out calls saw CSX move +4.3% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | CSX moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | OUT | $47.50 | now | +0.5% | open |
| Sep 1, 2026 | IN | $48.70 | Oct 6, 2026 | −2.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 31, 2026 | OUT | $40.81 | Sep 1, 2026 | +19.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 12, 2026 | IN | $38.99 | Mar 31, 2026 | +4.7% | ✓ right |
| Jan 14, 2026 | OUT | $35.85 | Mar 12, 2026 | +8.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Jan 7, 2026 | IN | $34.73 | Jan 14, 2026 | +3.2% | ✓ right |
| Nov 26, 2025 | OUT | $34.85 | Jan 7, 2026 | −0.3% | ✓ right |
| Nov 17, 2025 | IN | $33.58 | Nov 26, 2025 | +3.8% | ✓ right |
| Sep 18, 2025 | OUT | $33.01 | Nov 17, 2025 | +1.7% | ✕ wrong |
| Aug 22, 2025 | IN | $34.01 | Sep 18, 2025 | −2.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 29, 2025 | OUT | $27.47 | Aug 22, 2025 | +23.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 24, 2025 | IN | $31.03 | Apr 29, 2025 | −11.5% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 169 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.