Mean reversion · daily rule · Energy & power
Bollinger Reversion on Constellation Energy
What the play says
CEG with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Growth of $10,000 since 2022
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding CEG over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2022 | Hold, since 2022 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +17.9% | +49.9% | +17.9% | +49.9% |
| Total return | +114% | +551% | +114% | +551% |
| Worst drawdown | −27.9% | −50.7% | −27.9% | −50.7% |
| Volatility | 22.3% | 48.8% | 22.3% | 48.8% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.66 | 0.99 | 0.66 | 0.99 |
| Time invested | 16% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 6.9 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 21 of 32 closed calls (66%). In calls averaged +4.3%; out calls saw CEG move +9.7% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | CEG moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | OUT | $257.18 | now | +15.0% | open |
| Jul 1, 2026 | IN | $236.14 | Jul 13, 2026 | +8.9% | ✓ right |
| Apr 13, 2026 | OUT | $290.82 | Jul 1, 2026 | −18.8% | ✓ right |
| Mar 20, 2026 | IN | $281.12 | Apr 13, 2026 | +3.5% | ✓ right |
| Feb 13, 2026 | OUT | $287.16 | Mar 20, 2026 | −2.1% | ✓ right |
| Jan 7, 2026 | IN | $337.13 | Feb 13, 2026 | −14.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 9, 2025 | OUT | $213.70 | Jan 7, 2026 | +57.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 3, 2025 | IN | $188.70 | Apr 9, 2025 | +13.3% | ✓ right |
| Mar 24, 2025 | OUT | $226.77 | Apr 3, 2025 | −16.8% | ✓ right |
| Feb 24, 2025 | IN | $265.05 | Mar 24, 2025 | −14.4% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 21, 2024 | OUT | $249.33 | Feb 24, 2025 | +6.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Nov 4, 2024 | IN | $223.35 | Nov 21, 2024 | +11.6% | ✓ right |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 33 calls shown.
How the play works
- In on a close below the lower band (20-day average − 2 standard deviations).
- Out on a close above the 20-day average.
This runs against Bollinger's advice that tags of the bands are not signals. It is shown because so many traders use it.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.