Momentum · month-end rule · Crypto miners
12-1 Momentum on Bitdeer Technologies
What the play says
Latest reading: 12-1 return −36.5%
BTDR with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Return from 12 months to 1 month ago
Dashed line at 0.
Growth of $10,000 since 2022
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding BTDR over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2022 | Hold, since 2022 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −22.5% | −2.3% | −22.5% | −2.3% |
| Total return | −66% | −9% | −66% | −9% |
| Worst drawdown | −88.1% | −79.5% | −88.1% | −79.5% |
| Volatility | 82.8% | 111.9% | 82.8% | 111.9% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.05 | 0.49 | 0.05 | 0.49 |
| Time invested | 62% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 2.6 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 5 of 11 closed calls (45%). In calls averaged −4.0%; out calls saw BTDR move +40.8% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | BTDR moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | OUT | $10.85 | now | −15.1% | open |
| Jun 30, 2026 | IN | $15.87 | Aug 31, 2026 | −31.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 31, 2026 | OUT | $8.65 | Jun 30, 2026 | +83.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Feb 27, 2026 | IN | $7.70 | Mar 31, 2026 | +12.3% | ✓ right |
| Dec 31, 2025 | OUT | $11.21 | Feb 27, 2026 | −31.3% | ✓ right |
| Oct 31, 2024 | IN | $7.79 | Dec 31, 2025 | +43.9% | ✓ right |
| Jun 28, 2024 | OUT | $10.26 | Oct 31, 2024 | −24.1% | ✓ right |
| May 31, 2024 | IN | $6.13 | Jun 28, 2024 | +67.4% | ✓ right |
| Oct 31, 2023 | OUT | $3.74 | May 31, 2024 | +63.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 31, 2023 | IN | $10.42 | Oct 31, 2023 | −64.1% | ✕ wrong |
| May 31, 2023 | OUT | $4.92 | Jul 31, 2023 | +111.8% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 29, 2022 | IN | $10.16 | May 31, 2023 | −51.6% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 12 calls shown.
How the play works
- In at month-end when the return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago is above zero.
- Out when it is zero or below.
Jegadeesh and Titman ranked thousands of stocks and bought the winners. Testing one stock against zero is time-series momentum, a related idea.
The skip-a-month form came later; their 1993 paper skipped at most a week.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.