Momentum · month-end rule · Metals & mining
12-1 Momentum on First Majestic Silver
What the play says
Latest reading: 12-1 return 67.7%
AG with the play, last two years
Shading shows the play's call from the close that triggered it.
Return from 12 months to 1 month ago
Dashed line at 0.
Growth of C$10,000 since 2005
Log scale. After trading costs, with T-bill interest while out.
The record
The play against buying and holding AG over exactly the same dates, after costs.
| Play, since 2005 | Hold, since 2005 | Play, 5 yrs | Hold, 5 yrs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +8.7% | +12.1% | +16.3% | +7.2% |
| Total return | +504% | +1,072% | +112% | +41% |
| Worst drawdown | −82.9% | −86.6% | −51.7% | −67.8% |
| Volatility | 45.3% | 62.6% | 43.9% | 60.6% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.37 | 0.47 | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| Time invested | 52% | 100% | ||
| Switches per year | 1.5 | 0 |
Every call, graded
Right on 14 of 32 closed calls (44%). In calls averaged +28.1%; out calls saw AG move +8.7% on average.
| Called | Call | Price | Until | AG moved | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2025 | IN | C$11.24 | now | +93.1% | open |
| May 30, 2025 | OUT | C$8.45 | Jun 30, 2025 | +33.1% | ✕ wrong |
| Apr 30, 2025 | IN | C$8.58 | May 30, 2025 | −1.6% | ✕ wrong |
| Mar 31, 2025 | OUT | C$9.58 | Apr 30, 2025 | −10.5% | ✓ right |
| Aug 30, 2024 | IN | C$7.51 | Mar 31, 2025 | +27.6% | ✓ right |
| Jul 31, 2024 | OUT | C$8.49 | Aug 30, 2024 | −11.5% | ✓ right |
| May 31, 2024 | IN | C$9.70 | Jul 31, 2024 | −12.5% | ✕ wrong |
| Dec 31, 2021 | OUT | C$13.88 | May 31, 2024 | −30.1% | ✓ right |
| Jan 29, 2021 | IN | C$22.73 | Dec 31, 2021 | −38.9% | ✕ wrong |
| Oct 30, 2020 | OUT | C$13.43 | Jan 29, 2021 | +69.3% | ✕ wrong |
| Jul 31, 2019 | IN | C$12.26 | Oct 30, 2020 | +9.5% | ✓ right |
| May 31, 2019 | OUT | C$8.09 | Jul 31, 2019 | +51.6% | ✕ wrong |
An in call is right when the price rose before the next call; an out call is right when it fell. The latest 12 of 33 calls shown.
How the play works
- In at month-end when the return from 12 months ago to 1 month ago is above zero.
- Out when it is zero or below.
Jegadeesh and Titman ranked thousands of stocks and bought the winners. Testing one stock against zero is time-series momentum, a related idea.
The skip-a-month form came later; their 1993 paper skipped at most a week.
The case against
Valeriy Zakamulin tested moving-average timing on up to 155 years of U.S. stock data and found no statistically significant edge in the second half of that record. The rules earned their keep in a few severe bear markets and lagged buy and hold for long stretches in between.