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Measured how candle and chart patterns actually perform

Thomas N. Bulkowski

Thomas N. Bulkowski (born 1957) was a hardware and software engineer at Raytheon, Tracor Westronics and Tandy before retiring at 36 in 1993 to invest full time. He measures chart and candlestick patterns statistically in books including Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns (2000) and Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts (2008).

What they argue

  • A bullish engulfing acts as a reversal 63% of the time, but its follow-through ranks only 84th of 103 candle types.
  • A bearish engulfing reverses 79% of the time, but the move after it is short-lived.

Sources

Encyclopedia.com: Bulkowski, Thomas N. 1957-Wiley: Thomas N. Bulkowski author informationEx Libris: Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts (Wiley, March 2008)ThePatternSite: Bullish Engulfing statistics

Summaries are Be The Puck's paraphrase of public material. Be The Puck has no affiliation with the people listed.

Books and papers

  • Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns (2000)
  • Trading Classic Chart Patterns (2002)
  • Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts (2008)

The full reading list

Nison bullish/bearish engulfing reversal switch

Rule and full record

Candles & chart patterns · daily · with Steve Nison

Buy after a bullish engulfing candle ends a decline; sell after a bearish engulfing candle ends a rally. An engulfing candle's body swallows the whole body of the day before.

Calls right50%42,088 closed calls on 377 stocks.
Beat buy and hold (Sharpe)44 of 375On raw return: 41 of 375.
In right now169 of 377As of the Oct 13, 2026 close.

Best risk-adjusted results against buy and hold:

MDAINQUTXINXLREOUTHTZINAXONOUTHR.UNINMAROUTBIROUTBBUCINAAVINBAMOUTGSYOUTAll 377 stocks →

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